The Future of Energy in the US: Trump’s 2024 Win and the Path Forward for Renewable

With a Trump victory and a Republican-controlled Senate, the future of America’s clean energy policy—and particularly the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—faces uncertainty. Despite speculation about potential rollbacks, the broader landscape reveals a crucial reality: US energy demand is accelerating, driven by expansion of AI and data centres, industrial reshoring, electrification, and increasingly severe weather. By 2030, data centre power demand alone is expected to see a 160% increase.

The IRA has already proven its impact, shaping America’s energy security, strengthening domestic manufacturing, and creating over 334,000 new jobs in just 2 years. Critically, the economic benefits have transcended party lines, with approximately 80% of IRA investments directed to Republican and now “red” swing states. This bipartisan impact underscores the foundational role of the IRA in building a resilient energy sector—even House Republicans have voiced support for energy tax credits for spurring innovation, attracting investment and creating jobs. Nonetheless, changes to the format, scope and name of the program seem inevitable.

The Political Energy Landscape

Trump has been openly critical of large offshore wind projects, citing concerns over their reliance on heavy subsidies. According to the Offshore Wind Market Report released in 2024, the Department of Energy (DOE) estimated that $10bn has been announced or invested in the US offshore wind supply chain since the beginning of 2021—including $2.1bn invested in 2023 alone.

Trump’s support for fossil fuels is clear, especially the output of oil and natural gas which both scaled record highs during his first term. Throughout the 2024 election cycle, Trump reasserted his “Drill, Baby, Drill” agenda, promising a fracking boom that he said could help establish American “energy dominance”. We therefore expect an increase in domestic drilling and resurgence of oil and gas projects under his administration—yet, the extent of both will likely be as much driven by underlying economic realities as by any policy changes introduced by Trump.

Interestingly, Trump has refrained from directly opposing solar energy. Could this be influenced by his new friend, Elon Musk, whose ventures into solar activities and industrial-scale batteries align with Trump’s manufacturing agenda? Or is it simply a recognition of solar's undeniable economic advantages?

Solar as a Strategic Asset

The Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE)—a measure of the average cost of electricity generation over the lifetime of an energy asset—has dropped significantly for large-scale solar projects, making them cheaper than other common sources of electricity, including gas. With cheaper energy being a cornerstone of Trump’s “energy dominance” strategy, this economic edge positions solar as an essential component of Trump's agenda to cut energy costs, achieve energy independence as well as attract competitive manufacturing back onshore.

The average cost of electricity as of March 2024 in the US is $0.184/kWh, compared to $0.126/kWh in Canada, highlighting the need for low-cost, domestic solar energy to support its industrial competitiveness. The average LCOE for solar has rapidly declined globally, from over $400/MWh in the early 2010s to approximately $49/MWh in 2022—a remarkable 88% decrease. The EY Energy and Resources Report shows that solar is the cheapest source of new-build electricity in many markets, and the average LCOE for PV is now 29% lower than the cheapest fossil fuel alternative. The DOE’s Solar Futures Study projected that solar energy could supply 40% of the nation’s electricity consumption by 2035 and is poised to reach nearly 50% by 2050.

A robust, fully integrated solar supply chain is therefore becoming a matter of national security—a vital interest that Trump has consistently sought to protect and prioritise. This aligns seamlessly with the “Bringing Manufacturing Back to America” initiative, driving job creation and corporate profits. Recent data shows that the US solar module manufacturing capacity has increased fourfold since the IRA and is reaching a total annual output of nearly 40GW in 2024, revitalising American manufacturing and strengthening the nation’s energy economy. According to SEIA’s analysis, a full US solar supply chain is projected to create more than 115,000 solar manufacturing jobs by the end of the decade.

In fact, solar investments saw massive growth during Trump’s first term—by the end of 2020, the US solar market surpassed 100GW of total installed capacity, effectively doubling the capacity in just 3.5 years. In 2021, immediately following Trump’s first term, solar accounted for 46% of all new electricity-generating capacity additions in the US, marking the third consecutive year that solar led the nation in new generating capacity. Trump also initiated protective tariffs on Chinese solar panel imports—which were largely extended under Biden’s administration as well—with current tariffs reaching up to 286%. Along with the protective programme with stringent American content requirements, these measures have significantly reshaped the solar supply chain landscape, driving domestic production and reducing reliance on imports. Trump’s recent statements suggest these protections will not only remain but could be further strengthened, ensuring long-term support for the US solar industry.

Trump-No Trump the Demand for Solar PV Will Increase

Regardless of political shifts, America’s rising energy demand is undeniable. The fundamentals are clear: the need for sustainable, reliable energy sources will only increase. Solar energy will be instrumental in addressing this demand and will continue to evolve as a cornerstone of America’s energy strategy and the “Make America Great Again” industrial strategy.

As a fully North American-integrated solar PV manufacturer, Awendio Solaris is uniquely positioned to capitalise on these trends. With our cutting-edge technology, sustainable practices, and commitment to excellence, Awendio Solaris is driving the energy transition towards a cleaner, more efficient future.

Marc Deschamps

CEO & Co-Founder of Awendio Solaris